Hurricanes blow into Durham seeking upset of Blue Devils

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/05/2012 - Durham, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The seventh-ranked Blue Devils will look to keep up the race for first place in the Atlantic Coast Conference as they host the Miami-Florida Hurricanes for a bout at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

This will be the 18th meeting in the all-time series. Duke has a 15-2 record against Miami after its 81-71 victory on Feb. 13th, 2011 in the last encounter.

Miami comes into tonight's game with a 13-7 overall record after it took down the Maryland Terrapins 90-86 in a double-overtime thriller on Wednesday. The victory was the third in a row and the fourth in five games. The Hurricanes have been playing well on the offensive end as of late, as they have not been held under 40 percent shooting in six games. Miami pulled down a season-high 43 rebounds in the win over Maryland. Miami has outscored its opponents by an average of 4.7 ppg this season so far. Head coach Jim Larranaga will face a tough challenge, as he is taking his squad that is carrying a 3-5 road record into one of the toughest atmospheres in college basketball.

Larranaga will look to Malcolm Grant, Durand Scott, Kenny Kadji, and Reggie Johnson to push past the Blue Devils in this one. All four of the mentioned Hurricanes are carrying double-digit scoring averages with Grant leading the pack with 13.3 ppg. Scott is the team's second leading scorer after he poured in 24 points in the team's win over Maryland. Kadji had been unstoppable as of late, averaging 18.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks per game in his last three outings, but he was absent from the lineup versus the Terrapins after a head injury he suffered during practice. Johnson provides size up front and scores just over 10 ppg and also is reeling in a team-best 6.5 rpg.

Mike Krzyzewski has yet another talented Duke squad on his hands as his team is near the top of both the conference and national rankings. The Blue Devils have won three straight and in six of their last seven outings. Duke improved to 19-3 overall and 6-1 in league play with a 75-60 decision over Virginia Tech on Thursday night. The Blue Devils shot 44.4 percent from three-point range and committed a season-low seven turnovers to push past the Hokies their last time out. Duke has been one of the best in ACC action this year, as they are outscoring their conference rivals by an average of 8.6 points per contest.

The Blue Devils' balanced attack is highlighted by its blue chip freshman Austin Rivers. The rookie guard is leading the team with 14.3 points per contest on 44.6 percent shooting from the field. Mason Plumlee is averaging just under a double-double with 11.9 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. Ryan Kelly and Seth Curry both made solid contributions off the bench in the team's win over Virginia Tech. Kelly netted 15 points on 5-of-10 shooting from the field while Curry contributed 11 points in 23 minutes of action.

Hitboc NCAA Basketball Betting News

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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