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12/29/2011 - Hallandale Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first of the year also means the beginning of the Triple Crown trail to the Kentucky Derby. The first stakes on that road is Sunday's Gulfstream Park Derby, a new race on the calendar.
The 1 1/16-mile event worth $100,000 has attracted a field of 11 three-year- olds for the main track. Post-time for the Gulfstream Park Derby is slated for 4:45 p.m. (et).
Topping the field is Spectacular Bid Stakes winner Ancient Rome. Trained by Tony Dutrow, the colt has drawn post seven with Joe Rocco Jr. again getting the riding assignment.
"I honestly don't know what to expect," Dutrow said. "Ancient Rome certainly has the talent, and if he can get the distance, he's going to be a useful three-year-old this year. It's all about experimenting here."
In the Spectacular Bid on December 3, Ancient Rome pressed the pacesetter and was able to put his nose on the wire, covering the six-furlongs in 1:08.95.
"He's always shown that toughness," Dutrow said. "That's one thing we know for sure about him. I would anticipate coming out of those sprint races he would be out on the lead or at least with the pacemakers.
"He's by Roman Ruler so we're looking at that when thinking about the stretch out. His daddy has produced a Belmont winner (Ruler on Ice) so we'll just have to wait and see."
Owned by Michael Dubb, Ancient Rome was second in his first start with Jeremy Rose in the saddle at Delaware Park. In his second career race, the colt, with Rocco riding, won by 7 3/4-lengths at Delaware as the 3-10 favorite. He has earnings of $92,000.
Here is the full field in post position order: King Kid, Corey Lanerie; Reveron, Fernando Jara; Gold Megillah, Edgar Prado; Nachas and Joy, Rajiv Maragh; Casual Trick, John Velazquez; Silver Menace, Javier Castellano; Ancient Rome, Joe Rocco Jr., Politicallycorrect, Elvis Trujillo, Ravelo's Boy, Jeffrey Sanchez; Rex's Last Tour, Daniel Centeno and Yourhonorandglory, Kendrick Carmouche.
<< Thoroughbred Times honored with Media Eclipse Award
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For its coverage of this year's Breeders' Cup
World Championships, Thoroughbred Times has received the Media Eclipse Award
in the Audio/Multi-Media Internet category. The honor was for "Breeders' Cup -
On the
<< Bordeaux set to add Brazilian defender Mariano
Bordeaux, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bordeaux agreed to sign Brazilian defender
Mariano Ferreira Filho from Fluminense, and he will complete his switch to the
French club pending a physical and official signing of a contract.
Mariano, 25, wil
<< Philly-NYC rivalry adds to Classic excitement
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Long before there was an NHL or even a
Stanley Cup, the rivalry between the cities of Philadelphia and New York
existed.
New York is the obvious heavy in the matchup; a gigantic, world-class
metropolis th
<< ESPN and HRTV recognized with Media Eclipse Awards
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Media Eclipse Award in the Television -
Live Racing Programming category has been given to ESPN for its live coverage
of the 2011 Breeders' Cup Classic. This is the third straight year that the
network
Wings place Holmstrom on IR >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Red Wings placed forward Tomas
Holmstrom on injured reserve and recalled forward Gustav Nyquist from Grand
Rapids of the AHL.
Holmstrom has been sidelined with a groin injury since Mo
Brady limited in practice by shoulder injury >>
Foxboro, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was
limited in practice Thursday because of a left shoulder injury, although his
exact condition remains unclear.
Brady had missed practice Wednesday, but the team
Lions ink RB Harris to extension >>
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Grey Cup champion British Columbia
Lions locked up a key part of their championship puzzle on Thursday, inking
running back Andrew Harris to a contract extension.
Terms of the deal were not disc
Browns' Shurmur still won't rule out McCoy >>
Berea, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleveland Browns coach Pat Shurmur says he still
hasn't ruled out quarterback Colt McCoy for Sunday's season-finale against the
Steelers.
McCoy has missed the last two games because of a concussion he suffered
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The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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